The Day After

The party at the Riverside Hotel wrapped up around 12:30am last night, and Dorothy Moon was one of the last to leave the ballroom. As a political junkie, it was exciting watching the twists and turns of the election, taking in numerous surprises throughout the night. The results were on the whole positive for conservatives, despite losing some strong liberty legislators.

I’ll go through each competitive race and share my next-day thoughts, with more in-depth analysis to come in the future. All results are taken from the Secretary of State’s website.

Senate 1:

This one hurts. Sen. Herndon has been a force of nature with regards to conservative legislation these past two years. No one has been as erudite in debate and tenacious in doing the work to pass good bills as Herndon. Jim Woodward directly appealed to Democrats for support and will now return to the Senate representing a district that looks increasingly purple.

House 1A:

It’s interesting that Rep. Mark Sauter got 49.9% of the vote, meaning that Jane Sauter and Spencer Hutchings split a 50.1% majority. The danger of vote splitting is going to be a common theme tonight. Jane Sauter had an impressive political organization, but it wasn’t enough to topple the incumbent.

House 1B:

Congratulations to Cornel Rasor on his victory. He has been involved in Republican politics for a long time so it will be neat to finally see him in the Legislature.

House 4B:

I was unable to find contact info for Dave Raglin when I sent out my interview requests last month, and he only got his website active a week or two ago. Glad to see Rep. Price hold off the challenge and return to the Legislature.

Senate 5:

I’m glad the voters in LD5 saw through the campaign of a former Kootenai County Democrats officer. I really enjoyed my conversation with Sen. Bjerke and look forward to seeing him back in the Senate.

Senate 6:

Sen. Foreman beat Robert Blair in a three way primary in 2022 and then won a close race against incumbent Democrat Sen. David Nelson in the general. This contest went back and forth last night but Foreman won comfortably in the end despite Blair’s support from IACI and other establishment groups.

House 6A:

Put this one in the “what could have been” file. Rep. McCann is clearly vulnerable, especially since proponents of school choice won victories throughout the state. Dave Dalby seems to be a good conservative but we need to learn to treat campaigns as a war rather than a debate club, which means employing strategy. Colton Bennett is a bright young man who could have won today, but hopefully stays engaged in the arena going forward.

House 7A:

Kyle Harris was Rep. Mike Kingsley’s chosen successor and defeated former Idaho County Commissioner Jim Chmelik. I had a chance to chat with Harris just a few days ago and am pleased to see him heading to the Legislature.

House 7B:

Larry Dunn had a conservative message but I think voters in LD7 had no reason to switch horses. Rep. Shepherd has done a good job representing his district in a way that is steady without being flashy.

LD8:

The clean sweep of LD8 is one of the big stories of the election. Rep. Blanksma lost her position as House Majority Leader during the session and has now lost her seat to Faye Thompson. Rob Beiswenger won the rematch with Rep. Bundy while Christy Zito makes a triumphant return to the Senate with a shellacking of Sen. Schroeder. The latter two voted against House Bill 71 last year, which prohibits child gender mutilation, and I heard last night that this remained a huge issue in the election.

Senate 9:

Brandon Shippy was one of the most impressive new challengers this year. Senate Assistant Majority Leader Abby Lee announced halfway through the session that she would not run for reelection, so former representative Scott Syme jumped in the race instead. I’m very excited to see Shippy in the Senate in 2025.

House 9A:

This race was surprising. The same district that supported Shippy over Syme gave an overwhelming victory over Rep. Gallagher, one of two public members of the Idaho Freedom Caucus to fall. I will miss Gallagher in the House next year. Shirts clearly connected with the voters in LD9 and it will be interesting to see what he does.

Senate 10:

The more money and energy the establishment throws at Sen. Nichols, the stronger she becomes. She won the open Senate seat in 2022 with 58.4% of the vote, which perhaps gave people ideas that she might be vulnerable this year. The establishment groups and PACs spent hundreds of thousands of dollars trying to defeat Nichols only for her to win one of the most lopsided victories of the night.

House 10A:

Speaker Moyle defeated Rachel Hazelip with 56% in 2022. She managed to chip away at that lead in the rematch but not nearly enough to make a difference. This race divided the conservative wing of the party and featured a lot of money from outside groups who wanted to take a valuable scalp. I look forward to seeing what Moyle can do with a more conservative House, and I hope that Hazelip remains active in Idaho politics.

Senate 11:

Live as a maverick, die as a maverick. Conservatives will miss Sen. Trakel, who went out of his way to demonstrate he was his own man. While admirable, it left him with few allies at his side in a tough campaign. It will be interesting to watch the direction Blaylock takes in the Senate next year.

House 11A:

This was one of the big surprises of the night. I figured that Marmon had a chance, as Rep. Yamamoto had made a lot of poor choices over the past year, but he not only won, he won convincingly. The chair of House Ed and a strong opponent of school choice was soundly defeated —what does that bode for education issues going forward?

House 11B:

I’ve been following Lucas Cayler for several months and have been quite impressed. A victory this close means that every door, every mailer, and every phone call really mattered. He worked hard for this, and I’m excited to see him in the House next year.

Both Chaneys lost last night, as former representative Greg Chaney was crushed by Christopher Boyd in the race for Canyon County Prosecutor.

Senate 12:

Sen. Adams won comfortably against Nampa Council Member Rodriguez, returning to the Senate for a second term. Some conservatives have been frustrated with Adams’ voting record, and were moved to support Rodriguez, but several statements he made at recent forums sounded like they came from the left, not the right. I think Adams’ heart is usually in the right place.

House 12A:

Rep. Cornilles only won in 2022 by 74 votes in a three way race, but last night he won a solid victory over Jarome Bell. I suspect that the fact that Bell only recently moved here from Virginia might have hurt his chances, while Cornilles has clearly connected with his constituents.

House 12B:

Rep. Crane won a resounding victory last night. Noller never responded to my interview request and I found very little information about him, so it’s no surprise that he won so few votes. Crane has been a great voice in the House these past two sessions and I’m looking forward to seeing him back next year.

Senate 13:

Sen. Lenney defeated the incumbent Agenbroad in 2022 with 57.6% of the vote. Turnout in LD13 this year was down, but Lenney nevertheless held on for another double digit victory. This despite the hundreds of thousands of dollars from establishment PACs absolutely hammering him since last summer. Brian Lenney is one of the most honest and plainspoken lawmakers in Idaho and I’m very happy that he will be back next year.

House 13B:

This was another surprise. Most of the three way races this year resulted in splitting the conservative vote and allowing the moderate to win, but Steve Tanner took matters into his own hands and won this race outright. This is a big conservative win, flipping the last moderate holdout in LD13.

Senate 20:

This was by far the biggest upset and surprise of the night. Never in Idaho history has the Senate president pro tempore lost in the primary, until now. Josh Keyser ran an incredible campaign and will be exciting to watch in the Senate. Winder can now retire and spend time with his grandchildren.

Senate 21:

Whereas Keyser began his campaign a year ago, Brenda Bourn only started at the filing deadline. This race shows the importance of a long term plan for fundraising and volunteering. Despite voting against H71, Sen. Bernt returns to the Legislature for a second term.

House 21A:

Rep. Petzke won reelection with an outright majority in a three way race. Both Nelson and McKinley brought some interesting ideas to the table but Petzke put in the work to turn out his voters and will return for a second term.

House 22B:

Rep. Monks was elected House Majority Leader during the session and brings a lot of experience to the table in an environment that sees a lot of turnover each year. I’m looking forward to seeing him back again.

House 23A:

Kuna council member Chris Bruce pulled off a narrow victory over Rep. Durrant. This bodes well for school choice, as Durrant was one of the votes against the tax credit bill last year.

House 23B:

LD23 ends up being a wash, as conservatives gain Chris Bruce but lose Rep. Lambert. Dygert played up his agricultural bona fides during the primary so I’ll be interested to see how he legislates next year.

Senate 24:

A lot of Idaho political watchers were worried about Sen. Zuiderveld, but she not only held her seat she did it in convincing fashion. She only beat incumbent Jim Patrick by 37 votes last year, and the establishment threw everything and the kitchen sink at her this year, but she has put together a tremendous coalition of conservatives in the Magic Valley who not only defended her but flipped three other seats as well.

House 24A:

The first of those three is Clint Hostetler, who defeated Rep. Dixon in a landslide. I’ve been impressed by Hostetler and am excited to see him in the House next year.

House 24B:

This race seemed pretty quiet from my perspective. Neither Rep. Miller nor Jeff Faulkner responded to my interview requests, but Miller won fairly comfortably.

Senate 25:

In what was perhaps the most lopsided upset of the night, Josh Kohl annihilated Sen. Hartgen in Twin Falls. I met Kohl last December, along with Clint Hostetler, at a fundraiser for Lucas Cayler, and was impressed with him, but I did not have a 63.1% victory over an incumbent senator on my bingo card.

House 25B:

David Leavitt is another solid young conservative, and once again the margin of victory over a Magic Valley incumbent is a surprise, but a welcome one. LD24 and 25 are now some of the most conservative in the entire state. On Twitter last night Dustin Hurst called it the Magic Valley Miracle. It is a testament to the hard work of the candidates and all the volunteers who have spent time and energy supporting them.

House 26A:

Mike Pohanka won fairly comfortably against Kally Schiffler and will face Democrat Rep. Ned Burns in the general election.

House 26B:

Lyle Johnstone came close to unseating Rep. Nelsen, but not close enough. He needed some of the Magic Valley magic.

House 27B:

Rep. Handy won handily against Pat Field.

House 28A:

This is another frustrating race. Rep. Cheatum will return to the Legislature having won only 40% of the vote. I was very impressed with James Lamborn and hope he remains part of Idaho politics going forward. Mike Savile has now lost as a Democrat, an independent, and a Republican, and should probably call it a day.

House 28B:

Kirk Jackson was leading in early returns but Rep. Garner pulled out a comfortable victory. Eastern Idaho still remains a tough nut to crack.

Senate 30:

Sen. VanOrden cruised to reelection.

House 30A:

Rep. Cannon has been solid, so I’m glad to see him survive a well-funded challenge.

House 30B:

This is probably the biggest gut punch of the night, even more than Sen. Herndon’s loss. Rep. Young has been one of my favorite people to watch on the floor and in committee as she calmly and methodically debates every issue. Losing by only 10 votes hurts, especially when she was the target of one of the most dishonest mailers in recent memory at the hands of Young Americans for Liberty.

House 31B:

Karey Hanks gave it a good run but Rep. Furniss’ community connections turned out to be too strong. Now we wait and see if he brings up the “3 P’s” on the House floor again.

Senate 32:

Overwhelming victory for Sen. Cook here. Even though we disagree on several issues I found him affable and knowledgeable, which makes him a hard candidate to beat.

House 32A:

Cook’s race and this one show the absolute state of Bonneville County. Despite being censured by her own party, despite often voting more like a Democrat than a Republican, Rep. Mickelsen won with more than 60% against two challengers.

House 32B:

Thankfully, Bonneville County isn’t too far gone. Though Bryan Smith failed to gain much traction, uber-liberal Sean Coletti also failed to capitalize and Rep. Horman sailed to victory. While seeing Smith on the floor would have been a treat, this is another win for school choice, as Horman helped carry the tax credit bill that failed in committee last year.

Senate 33:

Sen. Lent cruised to victory. Southeastern Idaho is tough for conservatives, especially downtown Idaho Falls.

House 33B:

Same story in the LD33 House race. Like many Bonneville County conservatives, Jilene Burger also lost her PC race. Is that region simply turning blue? Or could this swing back in another election or two, like Twin Falls has?

House 34B:

Rep. Raybould defeated Ron Nate by 36 votes in 2022, but has now consolidated her base and cruised to victory last night.

LD35:

LD35 is solidly establishment as neither Toomer nor Skidmore could gain any traction. Even though Rep. Wheeler, the chairman of the Main Street Caucus, donated to Joe Biden in 2020, he nevertheless has the confidence of his Republican voters.

In the end it was a good night for conservatives. Despite losing Herndon, Gallagher, Trakel, Lambert, and Young, we gained Rasor, Shippy, Cayler, Marmon, Tanner, Keyser, Hostetler, Kohl, and Leavitt. The geography of the state shifted, with LD1 turning more purple while LD24 and 25 went hard red. The Treasure Valley continues to be a battleground of ideologies and personalities.

The Idaho Freedom Caucus lost two public members in Herndon and Gallagher. However, the Main Street Caucus lost six: Schroeder, Yamamoto, Winder, Dixon, Hartgen, and Lanting. Both caucuses lost one member to retirement — Mike Kingsley from the IDFC and Abby Lee from the MSC. I’ve heard several veteran lawmakers talking about how to reconcile the dueling caucuses, so it will be interesting to watch what happens on that front leading into the next session.

I’ll have more analysis in the days to come, with looks at other races as well as the state of the precinct committeemen. For now, I’ll go back to congratulating the winners and preparing for next week’s reorganization meetings. The work never ends. Thank you for your support and encouragement!