SPOON: The Pendulum Swings: Measuring Political Success

By Ryan Spoon

Human nature desires constant forward motion towards our goals. “Keep moving the ball forward!” But politics is cyclical. The pendulum of power swings back and forth. Even the most casual observer of politics acknowledges this intellectually, but many of us somehow seem to forget this reality when assessing recent results. Anyone who believes that their ideological team can win every year, every cycle, no matter the external conditions, is not approaching politics realistically or seriously.

If we can agree that expecting to achieve never-ending victories in every election cycle is unrealistic, then I would like to suggest a more realistic standard to define “victory”:

Success in politics consists of maximizing one’s victories in favorable cycles and minimizing one’s losses in unfavorable cycles.

The 2024 election, both the primaries and the general election, was an extraordinarily favorable election cycle for conservative Republicans, both nationally and in Idaho. Public outrage at Joe Biden’s administration was at a fever pitch, debt and immigration were both increasing exponentially, the double standard against conservatives in the workplace and throughout society was obvious to everyone, and our entire society was increasingly gay/trans, woke, socialist, and overall leftist. Regular Americans had had enough! Here in Idaho, the wave of conservative transplants that had started picking up speed in the 2010s turned into a massive tidal wave during COVID, and the previously outnumbered conservative natives found themselves reinforced by new and motivated allies. The combined and growing forces of conservative natives and conservative transplants had made some small gains in elected offices in 2022, we achieved much bigger gains in the Idaho Republican Party leadership in 2022, we were still enraged about unresolved COVID abuses, school choice was still on the table, and by the time the 2024 election cycle rolled around, we were now organized and ready to flex our new demographic muscles. Conservative national groups like Citizens Alliance through their state chapter Citizens Alliance of Idaho (CAI) and the national school-choice group American Federation for Children (AFC) were also becoming increasingly organized, sophisticated, and involved in Idaho elections. Other conservative groups also chipped in, such as Idaho Family Policy Center (IFPC) and the Idaho Freedom Foundation (IFF).

By just about any metric, conservatives in Idaho knocked it out of the park in 2024! We made gains in 16 legislative races, losing ground in only 4, for a net gain of 12 seats in the 105-seat state Legislature. And that’s not to mention our stunning 70-30 victory over Ranked Choice Voting (Proposition 1) in Nov. 2024! For the 105-seat Legislature, a net gain of 12 seats is an 11.4% victory. (See the “Notes on my Methodology” section at the bottom of this article for an explanation of my scoring.) There were gains and losses across the state, but in general, conservative gains were concentrated in the central and southern parts of the state. Districts 1 (Bonner/Boundary counties), 8 (Valley, Elmore, Boise, Custer counties), 9 (Washington/Adams counties), 11 (Caldwell), 29 (Pocatello), and 23-25 (Ada to Twin Falls) had several remarkable new conservative wins, including Senator Josh Keyser‘s victory over incumbent Senate President Pro Tem Chuck Winder and victories by newcomers that would go on to become the “Gang of Eight,” among others. Remember that 11.4% victory number, because we’ll come back to it in just a moment. Over the next 2 legislative sessions, Republicans passed nation-leading legislation across a wide variety of policy categories. Idaho, previously a follower on most conservative issues, was now a leader!

That net gain (or net loss) metric (e.g. 11.4% gain in 2024) compared against a favorable or unfavorable electoral cycle is the best way to measure political success.

While 2024 was an historic red wave at the national level and even more so in Idaho, 2026 was an historic blue wave nationally. At the national level, the mid-term election for President Trump went about as bad as it could go. When much of the state of Texas goes blue and we’re looking at a Democrat advantage in the US House that could be as many as 100 seats, that’s a very bad night for conservatives. The incumbent President’s party has only gained seats in a mid-term election five times in the past 100 years and only twice in the past 50 years. Only twice in 100 years has the incumbent President’s party gained Senate seats. Gaining seats was unrealistic from the start, but this was one for the history books. An arguably unnecessary war with Iran continues to fester, prices are high, especially fuel prices, and while President Trump’s work on immigration has led to many deportations, a near halt to all illegal immigration, and a large reduction in legal immigration abuses, the perception among many independents and conservatives is that he has not done enough. This perception, much like stock market expectations, no matter how unrealistic, matters more than reality at the ballot box.

But how did Idaho compare? The 2026 Republican primary in Idaho both reflected national conditions and also showed a reaction to Idaho conservative gains in 2024. Remember, The Empire Always Strikes Back! Many Idaho liberals and moderates had been angered by conservative gains on policies ranging from school choice to medical freedom to anti-LGBT policies to curbing social welfare programs to election integrity to immigration. And if the actual issues weren’t enough, the aggressive behavior from some members of the “Gang of Eight” towards other conservatives angered those who would have otherwise been on their side, opening a wedge of opportunity that “moderate” Republicans were happy to exploit. (I’m going to refer to “moderate” and liberal Republicans as “Establishment Republicans” or “RINOs.” I don’t care if you’re offended by the terms, get over yourself.) The results of the GOP primary in 2026 revealed all of these headwinds. Five of the eight members of the “Gang of Eight” lost their primaries against more-liberal opponents, and more liberal Republicans also won primaries across southern and southeastern Idaho, including Jennifer Miles over Tanya Burgoyne in LD-29 and some newcomers vying for open seats previously held by RINO predecessors. School choice policy and immigration were often-cited issues of friction. However, something else was revealed, because, while losing in the southeast, conservative Republicans made important gains in Districts 1 (Bonner/Boundary counties) and District 6 (Moscow) against some of the most liberal Republicans in the Legislature. The Idaho Republican Party is looking increasingly different between the western/northern portion of the state and the southern/southeastern part of the state. There are many factors at play, but one of the factors is that the eastern half of the state has not yet received nearly as many of those conservative transplants that reinforced the conservative natives in the western half of the state. Also, the transplant waves that have arrived in the eastern half of the state have been more recent, and they are largely disorganized and unsophisticated, much as they were in the western half of the state in 2020 and 2022. The Democrats still own the dividing line that is the City of Boise, and the elected Republican legislators to the east and south of Boise are largely from the more moderate wing of the party (the “RINO” wing), while the Republicans west and north of Boise are largely from the more conservative wing of the GOP. (There are exceptions to every generalization, so don’t get personally offended if that generalization doesn’t apply to you. On average, it’s an accurate description.)

Those gains by more liberal Republicans over more conservative Republicans in the 2026 GOP primary represented a net loss of 3 seats by conservatives compared to the current legislators. Those 3 seats were a 2.9% loss for conservatives out of the 105-seat Legislature. (See the “Notes on my Methodology” section at the bottom of this article for an explanation of my scoring.)

The 2026 general election extended those conservative losses further. Despite the Idaho GOP’s resounding win over the pro-abortion Proposition 1 in 2026 (praise God!), the Democrats swept the swing districts in LD-15 (West Boise), LD-26 (Sun Valley and surrounding), and LD-29 (Pocatello). Republicans kept their gains in the northern and the western parts of the state. Overall, between the primaries and the general election combined, this yielded a net gain of 8 seats from more conservative Republicans to either “RINOs” or to Democrats. Remember the 11.4% gain from 2024?

Conservatives gained 11.4% in the favorable election cycle in 2024, and conservatives lost 7.6% in the unfavorable election cycle in 2026.

Conservatives currently hold a 4-seat gain from 2022 to 2026. These cycle-to-cycle percentages and net gains, examined in the context of external, national conditions and internal, Idaho conditions, are the correct way to measure progress, either positive or negative. Remember my original thesis above? Success in politics consists of maximizing one’s victories in favorable cycles and minimizing one’s losses in unfavorable cycles. So far, conservative Republicans in Idaho are doing that.

Keep All Things in Perspective, and Keep Fighting for Idaho!

Notes on My Methodology

Below is my scoring table tracking the outcome of the 2022, 2024, and 2026 elections. I’ll try to explain some of my assumptions and also address likely disagreements in these notes, and the scoring table can be found below the notes.

1. I highlighted the 3 swing districts (15, 26, and 29) in yellow and the 4 Democrat districts in Boise in blue. District 6 (Moscow) is not really a true swing district anymore ever since the 2022 redistricting.
2. The District 11 (Caldwell) Senate seat is where I’m going to take the most heat from conservatives on my scoring. Chris Trakel has been regarded as the more conservative candidate the past few cycles after defeating ultra-leftist “Republican” Julie Yamamoto in 2022, and Yamamoto has gone on to join the Editorial Board of the Idaho Statesman and openly endorse Democrats. Trakel’s two GOP primary defeats by Camille Blaylock in 2024 and 2026 have been regarded as wins for the “RINO” faction. This has been regarded as an extra special feather in the cap of the “RINO” faction, because Blaylock’s father, Tom Luna, has been one of the leaders of the “RINO” faction of the Idaho Republican Party since his term as State GOP Chair was ended by Dorothy Moon in 2022 (and blocked again in 2024 and 2026). (I would like to note that Tom Luna has been an extraordinary champion in the fight against the pro-abortion Prop 1 this year, so thank you Tom for that!) I initially agreed with that conservative vs. RINO assessment of Trakel vs. Blaylock, but I no longer do. Trakel had a mixed record at best in his one term as a Senator, he was a frustratingly-unreliable vote in the Senate and an obnoxious personality besides, and he went on to serve a particularly uninspiring term as Canyon County GOP Chair. Blaylock, whose overall Freedom Index score of 64 is only marginally lower than Trakel’s 77 (it’s questionable to compare scores across legislative sessions anyways), has been a vocal champion for school choice and medical freedom, and she also was the primary driver on eliminating a redundant $30 Million grant program that was being abused by public school districts. You’re free to disagree with me, but I call that a wash between those two candidates.
3. Brian Beckley (LD-8) and Debbie Geyer (LD-11) are unproven newcomers, but they openly ran to the left of their “Gang of Eight” opponents, so I’m assuming that their votes will reflect that. Whatever Faye Thompson‘s recent shortcomings may be (like endorsing a Prop 1 signer for district judge!), Beckley is likely to vote even more liberal than Faye. Same with the other 3 newcomers who defeated “G8” members in LD-24 and LD-25 (Twin Falls).
4. In Districts 26 and 29, some conservatives may disagree with me about my ratings for Manwaring and Pohanka‘s defeats to Democrats. I’ve heard some say “they were as bad as Democrats!” While I agree that neither were good conservatives, I would contend that they’re significantly better than Democrats, so I rated their defeats as -1. Jennifer Miles won the GOP Primary in LD-29 while running to the left of Tanya Burgoyne, but then Miles went on to lose the general election to Democrat Nate Roberts. A downgrade in the primary was further downgraded in the general. All of the other Democrat victories in LD-15, LD-26, and LD-29 were clear losses for conservatives.

About Ryan Spoon

Ryan Spoon graduated from the U.S. Military Academy at West Point in 1998 and served as an active-duty Army officer. He now works in fire protection engineering consulting. He is the former Chairman of the Idaho Freedom Political Action Committee (PAC) and the current First Vice Chairman of the Ada County Republican Party Central Committee (Ada County GOP).

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