Close Races to Watch in Idaho

The big issues driving voters to the polls in the Gem State this year are obviously Proposition 1 and Donald Trump. Every vote will count, both to prevent big outside organizations from completely rewriting our election laws as well as giving Trump the votes he needs to make a triumphant return to Washington with a popular mandate. However, there are other important issues on the ballot as well.

There is no doubt that the 68th Idaho Legislature will be more conservative than any in Idaho’s history, but there are still a few wild cards left to play out. Today I’d like to take a look at the purple districts that could go either way.

District 6

Legislative district 6 encompasses Latah, Lewis, and Nez Perce Counties, including the college town of Moscow. LD6 is currently represented by three Republicans — Sen. Dan Foreman and Reps. Lori McCann and Brandon Mitchell.

• Dan Foreman is one of the most conservative members of the Senate. He defeated Blair 53.2% – 46.8% and now faces Democrat Julia Parker. Democrats and their friends in the media have amplified an accusation that Foreman told Democrat Trish Carter-Goodheart, a member of the Nez Perce Tribe who is challenging McCann for the House, to go back where she came from. Foreman denies that he said it, and thus far no video or audio evidence has been provided to prove he did. The media focus on that issue shows that they believe Foreman is vulnerable, and are salivating at the chance to pick off a solid conservative.
• Lori McCann is a moderate Republican who survived a tough primary only because Dave Dalby split the conservative vote, pulling Colton Bennett just short of victory. She faces Carter-Goodheart.
• Brandon Mitchell is a solid representative known for championing election integrity bills. He faces Democrat Kathy Dawes.

Will media coverage foil Dan Foreman’s reelection campaign? Will students from the University of Idaho turn out and flip the district blue? Will Pastor Doug Wilson’s followers turn out and keep it red? As of this writing, 7,696 residents have voted early. Of those, 48.7% are Republican, 23.4% are Democrat, and the rest are independent or third party.

District 15

Legislative district 15 sits on the western edge of Boise and is currently represented by two Democrats and a Republican. Rep. Dori Healey won a close election in 2022, while former Rep. Codi Galloway lost by around 300 votes. Galloway is back for a rematch with Sen. Rick Just and the trio is rounded out with Annette Tipton challenging Rep. Steve Berch.

• Codi Galloway served a single term in the House before challenging Sen. Fred Martin in the 2022 primary. Martin, the chairman of the Senate Health & Welfare Committee, was a big vaccine booster in a time when many Republicans were becoming skeptical of vaccines and especially vaccine mandates. Galloway defeated Martin but fell just short in the general.
• Dori Healey has emphasized her nursing background in her first term and now second campaign. She has quietly put together something of a maverick record, one of only four legislators to score between 50% and 60% on both the Idaho Freedom Foundation’s (IFF) Freedom Index and the Idaho Association of Commerce and Industry’s (IACI) scorecard as well. She faces Democrat Shari Baber this year.
• Annette Tipton is a newcomer to campaigning, but not to politics. She interned with Sen. Mike Crapo before lobbying for banking and healthcare industries. She explained to me that she studied the maps and demographics of LD15 carefully before running, putting together a plan to build on Steve Keyser’s narrow defeat in 2022 and finally unseat Steve Berch.

As of this writing, more than 8,500 residents of LD15 have voted early, and just over 50% are Republican while only 21.7% are Democrats. Will this be enough to turn the district red, and make Republican inroads into Boise? Or are there too many crossovers — leftists who register as Republican — who plan to keep it purple, or even flip it blue?

District 26

Legislative district 26 covers Blaine, Jerome, and Lincoln Counties, which means it includes the leftist enclave of Sun Valley. Nevertheless, it remains a purple district, especially after the maps were redrawn after the 2020 census. The district is currently represented by one Republican and two Democrats, though Rep. Jack Nelson is perhaps the most liberal member of the Republican House caucus. His seatmate is Rep. Ned Burns along with Sen. Ron Taylor.

• Ron Taylor is running for his second term in the Senate after defeating former Rep. Laurie Lickley in the 2022 election 51.6% – 48.4%. Lickley is back for a rematch, but with the added dimension of conservative independent Kala Tate in the mix as well.
• Ned Burns has completed his first full term in the House. He was appointed to fill a vacancy in early 2022, and went on to defeat Republican Mike Pohanka by a mere 37 votes in that year’s election. Pohanka is also back for a rematch, defeating Kally Schiffler in the primary.
• Jack Nelson has also completed his first term, having won election in 2022 by only 84 votes. He defeated Lyle Johnstone in a close primary race 52.2% – 47.8% and now faces Democrat Chris Hansen.

This might be the most razor-thin battleground district in Idaho. Will a newly-revitalized Blaine County Republican Party push its candidates across the finish line? Or will the limousine liberals of Sun Valley turn out and keep the district purple? More than 8,000 voters have cast their ballots early, and of those, 43.7% are Republican, 25.2% are Democrat, and the rest are independent or third party.

District 29

Legislative district 29 comprises the city of Pocetello, so you would think it would be solidly blue. Not so — it is another battleground. Rep. Dustin Manwaring not only represents LD29, but he also serves as the Republican Caucus Chair in the House. Rep. Nate Roberts is his Democratic seatmate. Republicans could not find a candidate to challenge Democratic Sen. James Ruchti, who will win reelection to a second term.

• Dustin Manwaring is finishing up his second term but faces a rematch against Democrat Mary Shea, whom he defeated 52.2% – 47.8% in 2022. Shea has some legislative experience, substituting for Sen. Ruchti several times this past session. Manwaring first won election in 2020 by unseating a Democrat incumbent.
• Nate Roberts first won election to the House in 2022 by defeating Republican Jake Stevens by only 112 votes. He now faces Tanya Burgoyne, who was unopposed in the Republican primary.

Gov. Brad Little and Speaker Mike Moyle recently made the trip to Pocatello to support Manwaring and Burgoyne, emphasizing the tightness of these races. Will Republicans sweep the House in LD29? Or has Pocatello joined other cities in drifting permanently to the left? The early vote has been relatively quite thus far, with 6,564 votes cast as of this writing. Of those, 45% are Republican, 20.9% are Democrat, and the rest are unaffiliated or third party.

Wherever you live, make sure to vote. Vote no on Prop 1 — Idaho must reject ranked choice voting. Vote for Donald Trump — even though he is in no danger of losing Idaho, we need to help him win the popular vote and carry a mandate back to the White House. Vote for conservative legislative candidates — The Idaho Legislature will remain in Republican hands, but the policy that comes out of the next session depends on which voices are preeminent within the GOP.

With one week to go, this is the final stretch. Tell your neighbors, tell your family, tell your friends, to get out and vote!

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