A couple of years ago I explained why I use the term establishment to refer to one faction within Idaho politics:
If I had to come up with a concise definition of an establishment politician, it would be someone who is part of the system and sees their primary duty as the continuation of that system. Establishment politicians often resist efforts to reform the system.
I think it’s about time to retire that moniker. With conservative gains in the Legislature, a clean sweep for conservative candidates in the Idaho GOP, and conservative mandate in Ada County, it’s time to recognize that we are the establishment now.
Insurgents must fight differently than the establishment. Political rebels have the luxury of making a lot of promises without necessarily having to deliver upon them, because by definition they are out of power. They are able to create a broad base of support, uniting various people and groups who all dislike the current establishment. Once the rebellion is over, divisions that were papered over before can come to the fore. Winning power is the easy part — figuring out how to govern is harder.
The Rebel Alliance has destroyed the Death Star and toppled the emperor. Now what?
Frank Herbert said that every revolution carries the seeds of its own destruction. The revolutionaries who overturned the French monarchy and beheaded the king soon found themselves at the mercy of the guillotine as well. T.E. Lawrence united the Arab tribes to fight the Ottoman Turks, but once the war was over they immediately began fighting amongst themselves.
The American Revolution stands out in history as an exception to this rule. After defeating Great Britain, the thirteen colonies maintained unity through the Articles of Confederation. When they proved insufficient, they ratified a new Constitution, elected a president and a congress, and hit the ground running. It was a bumpy road at times, but our Founding Fathers were able to solve their disagreements with words, not bullets. George Washington, John Adams, Thomas Jefferson, Alexander Hamilton, and the rest of those great men deftly handled the transformation from revolution to government.
How can we do the same?
First, we have to stop the infighting. My open letter to the Gem State Conservatives this week was sincere. We have had significant differences of opinion and fought each other relentlessly for the past year or so, but now it’s time to put that aside and unite toward our common goals. We have a slate of Republican candidates and the ranked choice voting initiative headed for the November ballot. Let’s work together, and we can worry about our disagreements later. Nothing more will be gained at this point by calling each other “extremists” or “RINOs” or trying to re-litigate the primaries or the convention. We are all Republicans, right? Let’s charge into battle together.
Next, we have to recognize that not all of our policy goals are immediately attainable. The Idaho GOP Platform has set some audacious aspirations, but achieving them means winning small incremental victories. It also means building a large enough coalition to pass legislation, which might mean compromising on some issues. That doesn’t mean we should compromise our principles — we must keep our eyes on the goal — but there will be tradeoffs.
One of the biggest controversies in the 2024 primary cycle was over House Speaker Mike Moyle. Many conservatives supported Rachel Hazelip’s second attempt to unseat Moyle, while others stood by him instead. I felt from the beginning that, despite Hazelip’s conservative bona fides, the movement would be better served with the House crafting an alliance with Moyle to achieve some wins in the next session. Idaho Freedom Caucus (IDFC) co-chair Heather Scott felt the same way, and I trust her judgment of legislative strategy.
I put together a graph showing the ideological makeup of the Legislature prior to the May 21 primary. The metric I used was the Idaho GOP platform rating put together by the Institute for Legislative Analysis.
Fittingly, the right side of the graph is the conservative IDFC, in red. On the left are the blue Democrats. The Main Street Caucus (MSC) is in green, showing how it really is the left edge of the Idaho GOP.
The IDFC lost two public members in the primary, plus one more to retirement. However, the MSC lost six, plus one to retirement. I count nine new legislators who are ideologically aligned with the IDFC, meaning conservatives gained ground this year despite losing Sens. Scott Herndon and Chris Trakel along with Reps. Tina Lambert and Jacyn Gallagher.
This means that while the Idaho GOP is going to tilt more strongly toward the right over the next two years, the IDFC and their allies won’t have an outright majority. In the middle are the unaffiliated Republicans: the Mike Moyles, Brent Cranes, and Lori Den Hartogs of the world. I am fairly sure that these lawmakers would rather work with the IDFC than the MSC, but that requires legislators on the right who are willing to work with them in return rather than tossing them under the bus as irredeemable RINOs.
Last session saw several examples of the MSC uniting with Democrats to pass moderate or progressive legislation. This year, a coalition of IDFC-aligned legislators along with those who are unaffiliated will constitute a majority in both chambers, which means we should see a lot of good conservative bills such as school choice pass the Legislature. This is what governing coalitions do.
When Disney took over the Star Wars franchise and gave J.J. Abrams the first crack at telling a new story, he apparently found it too difficult to write a continuation of the existing saga in which the former rebels were now the governing power. Instead of showing the trials and tribulations of the New Republic, Abrams instead reset the story back to square one, making our heroes rebels again.
We must not fall into the same trap. The actions of government during the 2020 pandemic woke a lot of people up to the necessity of political involvement, sparking a rebellion against the Idaho establishment. Now it’s time to pivot to governing, which means building a broader coalition and passing good legislation. For the Idaho GOP and conservative county committees, it means taking the lead in setting the parameters of the discourse rather than only ever reacting to what other people say and do. Instead of demanding legislators explain themselves before the committees, legislators should be asking to come share their visions to the precinct committeemen.
Now that we are in the driver’s seat, we must get results. We must prove that conservatives not only have the best policy positions, but also excel at organization and infrastructure. Let’s get those conservative nominees elected in November. Let’s keep Ada County fully red. Let’s take back territory in Boise by winning all three seats in district 15.
It’s put up or shut up time for Idaho conservatives. We as a movement have been granted a mandate by the people, now it’s up to us to do the peoples’ business. That means changing our strategy to accomplish our goals. The time to fight the man is over — we are the man now. We are the establishment, and it’s time to unite around our shared values and go get things done.
Bonus note for paid subscribers over at Substack. Not subscribed? Click here to change that!
