Proponents of abortion in Idaho are convinced they’re on the right side of history. Leftists believe that their agenda is the natural march of progress from barbarism to utopia—it’s right there in the name “progressive.” After abortion initiatives succeeded in Kansas and Ohio—both red states—they believed Idaho was ripe for the picking. Early polls showed majority support for abortion in Idaho, so it seemed that now was the time to make history.
Yet as with ranked choice voting in 2024, proponents of abortion in Idaho might have overreached. Rather than pursuing a very limited expansion of exceptions, and perhaps legalizing abortion up to 12–15 weeks, which might have garnered more support, the authors of the initiative took it upon themselves to completely rewrite Idaho’s laws defending unborn life. The so-called Reproductive Freedom and Privacy Act establishes a guaranteed right to what the authors call “reproductive freedom and privacy” with no age limit, and legalizes abortion until viability, which the initiative redefines to mean when a baby can survive without “extraordinary” medical care. Depending on the circumstances, that could be in the eighth or even ninth month of pregnancy.
Even those Idahoans who might have supported a limited expansion of abortion seem to be balking at Prop 1. While there has been little public polling on the issue, prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket have shown a shift in sentiment over the past few weeks. While trends in betting markets don’t guarantee any particular outcome, they can demonstrate what people—people who are willing to put money behind their predictions—believe is going to happen. Jake the Lawyer recently had a good video explaining how prediction markets work and the legal issues surrounding them.
As of this writing, Polymarket shows a 15% chance that Prop 1 passes, after bouncing between 40% and 60% for much of the summer. With two weeks to go until Election Day, bettors are suddenly pessimistic.
Several things happened around the weekend of October 9–12 that likely influenced bettors’ views of this campaign. The Too Extreme for Idaho PAC, which is behind the Stop Prop 1 campaign, reported raising $1.5 million, including $1 million from the LDS Church and another $300,000 from the Catholic Diocese of Boise. October 9 was also the day that the Idaho GOP issued a press release cosigned by nearly all statewide and federal elected officials calling on voters to reject Prop 1. It included a quote from Gov. Brad Little:
“I am voting no on Proposition 1,” Gov. Little said. “It would allow girls under 18 to receive abortion without parental consent, and it would make abortion far more accessible in Idaho. Proposition 1 simply goes too far.”
Around the same time, nearly 100 Idaho physicians signed an open letter defending Idaho’s abortion ban and urging voters to reject Prop 1, and Sen. Brandon Shippy organized an open letter from Idaho lawmakers urging the same thing. As of this writing, that letter had 66 signatories, nearly three-quarters of the Republican caucus.
All of these developments suggest momentum is moving against Prop 1 in Idaho. The same betting markets have shown barely any movement in other big races, such as the U.S. Senate race between Sen. Jim Risch and Todd Achilles or the gubernatorial race between Gov. Little, Democrat Terri Pickens, and independent John Stegner.
One caveat is that none of these Idaho markets have very high trading volume, which means relatively few people are trading contracts based on these predictions. It’s possible for bettors to be wrong, but I’m more interested in the trends. Momentum is everything in politics—voters gravitate toward candidates and causes that look to be winning bets. Right now, the betting markets suggest Prop 1 is heading for defeat.
If Idahoans reject Prop 1, it could be a watershed moment for the pro-life cause. It would show that expanding abortion rights is not inevitable, and that progress doesn’t have to be defined as a permanent leftward shift. Idahoans have the opportunity to show that progress could, in fact, mean greater respect for unborn life, rather than treating it as disposable. But polls, prediction markets, and even momentum mean nothing if you don’t show up to vote. Early voting has started in nearly every Idaho county—if you aren’t sure you can make it to the polling place on November 3, then make a plan to vote early. Generations of Idahoans yet unborn are depending on it!
Feature image by Jeffrey Eisen from Pexels.
The Gem State Chronicle delivers daily analysis, op-eds, press releases, and Idaho Insider updates — free to your inbox.
Free newsletter · Unsubscribe anytime · View on Substack
About Brian Almon
Brian Almon is the Editor of the Gem State Chronicle. He also serves as Chairman of the District 14 Republican Party and is a trustee of the Eagle Public Library Board. He lives with his wife and six children in Eagle.
